Generative AI and Economic Growth: A New Approach to Measuring Its Potential Economic Impact

Abstract

This study employs a dynamic global economy-wide model to quantify the potential economic impacts of Generative AI (GenAI) adoption. Analyzing scenarios ranging from rapid to slow adoption, the report forecasts significant GDP growth—up to $3.37 trillion added to the US economy by 2050 under rapid adoption. It challenges the narrative of inevitable job loss, projecting a net gain of over 8 million jobs in the US, provided there is concurrent workforce upskilling. The study highlights that the Education and Healthcare sectors stand to gain the most in terms of employment and investment returns. Conversely, a failure to upskill the workforce could lead to net job losses and increased unemployment, underscoring the critical need for policy and business strategies focused on human capital development.